As India’s economic momentum accelerates and the country edges closer to becoming a global economic heavyweight, Rubix Data Sciences has released the latest edition of its flagship series, Rubix Country Insights, featuring an in-depth analysis of India.
The release comes in the wake of a significant statement by B.V.R. Subrahmanyam, CEO of NITI Aayog, who recently said that India has become the fourth-largest economy in the world, citing current IMF data and economic estimates. While official confirmation from multilateral agencies is awaited, this milestone reflects broader macroeconomic trends captured in the Rubix report—India’s economic engine is firing on multiple fronts.
According to the report, India’s GDP has doubled in the last decade, from USD 2.1 trillion in 2015 to a projected USD 4.3 trillion by 2025, placing it firmly on the path to becoming the third-largest economy by 2028, surpassing Germany.
Even amid global volatility, India’s fiscal and monetary frameworks remain disciplined. Retail inflation hit a six-year low of 4.6% in FY2025, and the fiscal deficit is forecast to decline to 4.4% of GDP in FY2026. The Reserve Bank of India has adopted a balanced stance, cutting repo rates to spur growth while maintaining inflation within the 4% target band.
On the trade front, India has expanded its footprint with total trade in goods and services reaching USD 1.7 trillion in FY2025, growing at a 9% CAGR since FY2020. While the merchandise trade deficit has widened due to high crude and electronics imports, the services trade surplus has more than doubled to USD 189 billion, bolstered by booming IT, consulting, and Global Capability Centre exports.
“India’s rise as a global economic force is reshaping trade flows, investment strategies, and geopolitical alignments,” said Mohan Ramaswamy, Co-founder and CEO of Rubix Data Sciences. “With this report, we aim to equip businesses, investors, and financial institutions with actionable insights to navigate this rapidly evolving landscape.”
The report also reveals:
- Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows have surpassed USD 1 trillion cumulatively since 2000, a clear vote of confidence from global investors.
- India’s digital transformation is in full swing, with Unified Payments Interface (UPI) processing over INR 260 trillion in FY2025, a 59% CAGR over four years.
- The country has emerged as the third-largest startup ecosystem globally, with over 1.59 lakh DPIIT-recognised startups and a resurgence in equity and IPO activity in 2024.
- Sectoral growth is driven by strategic government incentives, including Production Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes across electronics, EVs, semiconductors, and pharma.
The Rubix report also highlights India’s growing geopolitical leverage through trade pacts. Recently signed FTAs with the UK and Chile, and ongoing negotiations with the EU and New Zealand, are expected to widen India’s export opportunities and reduce trade friction in key markets.
Looking ahead, India’s projected GDP growth of 6.2% in 2025 and 6.3% in 2026, as estimated by the IMF, positions it as the fastest-growing major economy globally, outpacing both advanced and emerging markets.
